The Pakistan Institute of Labour Education and Research (PILER) and SZABIST jointly organized a seminar titled “Trade Wars and Tariff Tensions: The Economic Fallout for Pakistan, the Region, and the Globe”.
The event brought together economist, academia industrialist, and trade unionists to discuss the ramifications of the ongoing global tariff disputes, particularly their implications for Pakistan and its neighboring economies.
The seminar was moderated by Mr. Abbas Haider, Joint Director at PILER, and renowned economist Dr. Asad Saeed shared a featured keynote insights.
Dr. Saeed outlined the shifting global landscape in the wake of rising tariff barriers, explaining that countries caught in the crossfire of trade wars often face complex choices between negotiating bilateral trade deals or losing market share.
He highlighted Pakistan’s structural weaknesses, including its limited fiscal space, which restrict its ability to provide subsidies or tax credits to support producers.
“In a country like Pakistan, where macroeconomic indicators are already fragile, trade wars can deepen vulnerabilities,” said Dr. Saeed.
“Unlike some of our competitors, Pakistan cannot offer tax credits or reduce energy costs to offset production expenses this raises the likelihood of adverse impacts on wages and employment, Minimum wage increases may not keep pace with inflation, and job opportunities could shrink”, he shared.
He added that although Pakistan’s role in the U.S. trade deficit is minimal—just 0.3%—the indirect effects may still be felt, bilateral trade negotiations may open new opportunities in sectors like agriculture or mineral exports.
Dr. Saeed emphasized that trade policy decisions could also influence Pakistan’s broader economic, political, and foreign policy alignments.
Addressing the domestic implications of these global shifts, Dr. Saeed also remarked on U.S. deindustrialization, arguing that recent protectionist measures would not reverse decades of industrial decline.
“Even if the U.S. attempts to revive its manufacturing sector, a lack of skilled domestic labor and restrictive immigration policies will limit its ability to succeed,” he said.
Mr. Qamar, a trade unionist, share his views about the human cost of economic protectionism. “In countries like Pakistan, where social security nets are weak, workers face increased precarity during such global economic shifts.”, he shared.
He also called for proactive measures, suggesting that Pakistan treat the current unrest in global trade as an opportunity to diversify its export markets and strengthen labor protections.
Mr. Nazim F. Haji, Industrialist; Ms. Mahnaz Rahman, Civil Society Representative; and Ms. Kirstine Drew, Head of Workplace Program, Pakistan Accord, also shared their views on the seminar.
