Since the outbreak of pandemic COVID-19 earlier this year, not only members of general public, but also the majority of well-educated people including professionals, government officials (to name a few) seem confused with the terminology and methodology used and suggested to devise for an effective control of the viral spread. The above mentioned unprecedented situation was being described with the help of uncommonly used words such as Social Distancing, Lockdown, Quarantine, Self-Isolation, Community/Non-community spread and “Flattening the Curve”.
“Flattening the Curve” refers to community isolation measures that keep the daily number of disease cases at a manageable level for medical providers and the health care system capacity.
As mentioned in the above figure (Adapted from livescience.com), the longer it takes for coronavirus to spread the population, the more time the healthcare system (hospital, healthcare workforce) will have to prepare for it. The chart explains why slowing the spread of the infection is nearly as important as stopping it. The faster the infection curve rises, the quicker the local health care system gets overloaded beyond its capacity to treat people.
As we’re seeing in Italy, more and more new patients may be forced to go without ICU beds, and more and more hospitals may run out of the basic supplies they need to respond to the outbreak.
A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away.
The key factor playing a pivotal role in “flattening the curve” has been found to be the “Lockdown” or “Social Distancing”.
As the above chart shows, the social distancing or lockdown effectively plays a key role in flattening the curve to fight against the viral spread.
This is another variable that policymakers, government officials, members of civil society need to understand to appreciate, advocate and propagate so that the general public can be prepared to follow the rules accordingly.
In epidemiology, the idea of slowing a virus’ spread so that fewer people need to seek treatment at any given time is known as “flattening the curve.” It explains why so many countries are implementing “social distancing” guidelines.
The ultimate objective and ideal goal while fighting against an epidemic or pandemic is to completely stop the viral spread. But simply slowing it, mitigation, is precarious. This reduces the number of cases that are active at any given time, which in turn gives doctors, hospitals, police, schools and vaccine-manufacturers time to prepare and respond, without becoming overwhelmed. Most hospitals can function with 10 percent reduction in staff, but not with half their people out at once.
Some experts in the field have suggested for getting the outbreak over with quickly. That is a recipe for panic, unnecessary suffering and death. Slowing and spreading out the tidal wave of cases will save lives. Flattening the curve keeps society going.
The number of new infections may not be reduced significantly overall and there is even the possibility of the pandemic lasting slightly longer. It is a delicate balance of managing the pandemic with limited resources for critical patient care.
To comply, many states have temporarily closed public schools, and many businesses have advised employees to work from home if possible. New Zealand government has been appreciated as one of the few countries who successfully flattened the curve by effectively using the social distancing and lockdown strategies right on time.
(Simulated model showing the effectiveness of the lockdown. Photo: Te Pūnaha Matatini)
The above figure shows a simulated model (Adapted from axios.com) specifies the way COVID-19 could affect New Zealand, also indicates the lockdown has significantly inhibited the spread of the virus.
This is illustrated that the number of patients could have been increased significantly if Lockdown and Social Distancing strategies could have not been implemented on time.
This should answer any questions, and remove any confusions continuously revolving around the benefits of lockdown and social distancing in fighting against the spread of COVID-19, as well as taking care of healthcare capacity and health system efficiency.
